Weekly Outlook: “Surprisingly Calm”

While the election results are a major topic of discussion, they have had no impact on the DAX. The index continues to be driven by the price of oil, which has recently fallen. Regardless, corporate earnings are said to be supporting stock prices.September 21, 2026. FRANKFURT (Deutsche Börse). Following the elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin, pressure on Chancellor Merz is mounting once again. On the stock markets, however, signs point to a recovery due to the slight drop in oil prices. A barrel of North Sea Brent crude is trading at just under $102 on Monday morning. Last week, the price peaked at $109.The DAX ( ) stands at 25,500 points on Monday morning, up from 25,308 at Friday’s close and down from its all-time high of 26,659 at the end of August. “Seasonally, September remains a difficult month,” comments LBBW analyst Andreas da Graca. Between 2000 and 2025, the average DAX performance was minus 1.8 percent. “With a decline of about 3.6 percent since the start of the month, the index has so far followed this pattern in a pronounced manner.”U.S. markets closed more or less unchanged on Friday and also remain below their highs. Notably, the Bitcoin price has risen to $81,552. This comes despite the fact that the U.S. bill to regulate cryptocurrencies—which the crypto community had been hoping for—failed in the U.S. Senate last week.“Still Room for Growth from a Cyclical Perspective”“Investors seem surprisingly unfazed,” comments Markus Reinwand, referring to the still-high oil price. In his view, stocks offer a certain degree of protection against inflation. “When it comes to earnings expectations for the next twelve months, upward revisions predominate both globally and for DAX companies, primarily due to positive signals for the global industrial cycle,” he adds. However, in an environment of rising interest rates, valuations typically contract. He considers it unlikely that a dynamic year-end rally will begin after the “September slump.” “Overall, though, from a cyclical perspective, there is still room for growth in stocks.”DWS Expects DAX to Rise by 10 PercentAndre Köttner of the fund management company DWS views European stocks with a sense of caution, but remains fundamentally optimistic. “There isn’t much to be gained here when it comes to AI,” he notes. However, every region has its strengths; in Europe, for example, these lie in healthcare stocks, financials, and insurers. He also sees opportunities in mechanical engineering and luxury goods for his long-term investment strategy. He considers a 10 percent gain for the DAX over the next twelve months to be realistic. “This is mainly because the sector weightings have changed,” he explains. The share of automotive and chemical companies is significantly lower than in the past. DWS’s price target for the DAX as of September 2027: 28,600 points.“Uncertain Period Until Early October”Technical analyst Christoph Geyer points out that fall doesn’t just bring storms in terms of the weather. On the stock market, too, most notable periods of turbulence have occurred in September and October. Even though indicators are in oversold territory, this offers no protection against price declines. “From a seasonal perspective, we can still expect an uncertain period until early October, before the year-end rally begins.”Christoph GeyerKey Economic and Business DataMonday, September 21Index Changes. The changes decided as part of the quarterly index review take effect. In the MDAX, Ströer replaces Hugo Boss; in the TecDAX, OHB replaces Cancom.Wednesday, September 23Trump and Xi meet. U.S. President Trump and Chinese President Xi will meet in Washington; trade policy is expected to be the main topic.10:00 a.m. Eurozone: September Purchasing Managers’ Index. According to Commerzbank, the Purchasing Managers’ Index could come under pressure again due to the renewed escalation and rising energy prices. The bank therefore forecasts a slight decline in the overall index to 51.5 points.Thursday, September 24Interest rate decisions in Switzerland, Sweden, and Norway. According to DekaBank, no changes to key interest rates are expected. In Switzerland and Sweden, inflation rates are each below 1 percent. In Norway, inflationary pressure—at over 3 percent—was the reason for the key interest rate hike this summer.10:00 a.m. Germany: ifo Business Climate Index for September. Preliminary results from other surveys point to an improvement in the ifo business climate, explains DekaBank.Friday, September 252:30 p.m. U.S.: August durable goods orders. According to Helaba, aircraft manufacturer Boeing reported fewer orders in August, suggesting a decline from the previous month. The bank expects a 0.7 percent drop.By Anna-Maria Borse, September 21, 2026, © Deutsche Börse AG About the Author Anna-Maria Borse is a finance and business editor specializing in financial markets, the stock market, and economic issues.Feedback and questions to live@deutsche-boerse.com

Weekly Outlook: “Surprisingly Calm”

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