Piyasalara Analitik Bakış

TL deposit rates extended their decline in the week of 11 September, slipping 47 bps to 43.90%, while TL commercial loan rates eased 36 bps to 53.64. Housing loan rates edged down to 41.93, but auto and general-purpose consumer loans rose to 40.53 and 64.14, respectively. USD deposit rates fell to 2.72 and EUR deposit rates rose to 1.52; USD commercial loan rates decreased to 8.05 and EUR commercial loan rates increased to 6.77. The commercial loan–deposit spread remained highest in TL at 9.74, above USD and EUR at 5.33 and 5.25.

Monetary policy history shows significant shifts: after rate cuts through early 2023, policy tightening from June 2023 totaled 3,400 bps to 42.50%, followed by further adjustments that took the policy rate to 50.00% in 2024 and then to 38.00% by end-2025. In 2026, the rate was cut to 37.00% and held steady on 12 March, 22 April, 11 June, 23 July and 10 September. Since the post-election policy shift in 2023, market rates have moved around the policy rate and the previously negative loan–deposit spread turned positive by July 2023.