Piyasalara Analitik Bakış

Turkish equities retreated with BIST100 down 1.67% as banks and industrials fell, while 2Y and 10Y local yields eased to around 40% and 35%. FX was steady near 48.8 for USD/TRY; 5Y CDS stood at 233. Regulators extended fund liquidation periods to six months. MSCI warned it may open a consultation on Turkey ahead of the November 2026 review if progress remains insufficient. Valuations look stretched: BIST100 trades at a P/E 89% above its 5‑year TL average, with industrials showing even higher premiums.
Asian markets start firmer; Brent hovers near $98. Domestic focus is on real sector confidence and capacity use; no major data abroad. The TCMB expectations survey points to CPI at 29.6% end‑2026 and 22.7% end‑2027, growth at 3.0% and 3.9%, USD/TRY at 51.6 end‑2026, and the policy rate at 37.0% at the next meeting and 35.1% by year‑end. Global risks persist with mixed U.S. equity performance, sticky inflation signals from the Fed, and heightened Iran–U.S. tensions around the Strait of Hormuz.