Haftalık Bülten

Borsa Istanbul retreated as BIST100 fell 8.2% to 13,284 amid SPK’s move to liquidate 131 investment funds within three months and transfer management to İş Bankası and Ziraat. USD/TRY and EUR/TRY hit record highs while Turkey’s 5‑year CDS moved above 225. Abroad, the Fed raised rates 25 bps to 3.75–4.00, penciled in one more hike, and nudged 2026 growth and PCE forecasts higher; the BOE held at 3.75% but warned on inflation risks from Middle East tensions; the BOJ lifted its policy rate to 1.25%. Energy supply concerns persisted even as Brent eased on the week.

Domestically, TCMB holds the policy rate at 37% after earlier cuts, with survey expectations for year‑end 2026 inflation at 29.61%, USD/TRY at 51.57, and GDP growth of 3.0% in 2026 and 3.9% in 2027. TCMB noted signs of easing in underlying inflation and said September CPI would be mechanically pulled lower by education and calendar effects, while elevated global energy prices remain an upside risk. Reserves declined, housing sales fell year‑on‑year, and the budget posted a monthly surplus but a year‑to‑date deficit.