Piyasalara Analitik Bakış

Turkish equities rallied with BIST100 up 2.95% led by banks (+8.88%) as local yields eased (2Y -56 bps to 40.61%, 10Y -12 bps to 35.28%) and CDS stood at 233. USD/TRY traded 48.62–48.78. TCMB signaled a decline in the underlying inflation trend, expecting September CPI to be mechanically lower due to education services and calendar effects, while high global energy prices remain an upside risk. Reserves fell week-on-week and August housing sales dropped 14.7% y/y. SPK set liquidation procedures for 131 funds tied to seven portfolio firms. Global risk tone improved with U.S. and European equities higher; BOE held at 3.75% but warned it could hike if Middle East-driven inflation pressures intensify; BOJ lifted policy rate to 1.25%.

Survey-based forecasts point to CPI at 2.12% m/m in September, year-end 2026 at 29.61% and 2027 at 22.69%; USD/TRY seen at 51.57 by end-2026 and 58.60 in 12 months. Current account is expected to post deficits of $50.1bn (2026) and $44.4bn (2027), with GDP growth at 3.0% and 3.9%. Policy rate is expected at 37.00% at the next meeting and 35.07% by end-2026. Valuations remain elevated: BIST100 trades at a 92.5% premium to its 5-year average P/E; Industrials show substantial P/E and EV/EBITDA premia.