Günlük Piyasa Özeti

Global markets steadied after the Fed unanimously raised rates by 25 bps to 3.75–4.00%, with Chair Warsh’s guidance reinforcing expectations for another hike this year. Immediate effects on equities and bonds are limited, while a stronger dollar and still-elevated energy prices remain key risks for net energy importers, highly leveraged economies and EM. Brent is near $106 with a slight pullback; modest rebound is seen in S&P 500, DAX and EM futures. The Bank of England is due today and the Bank of Japan tomorrow.

In Turkey, TL assets face fund-market-driven volatility rather than macro factors: the benchmark bond yield rose 76 bps, BIST 100 fell 5.5%, and VIOP margin calls hit TL 1.7bn, the highest since June. Despite softer oil, TL bond yields climbed amid liquidity risk and foreign reductions in TL positions; swap rates inched up, the curve shifted higher, and CDS rose nearly 3%. The CBRT’s net FX ex-swaps fell $2.7bn in two weeks (June-to-date improvement $34.1bn). The BIST view remains positive from 12,400, with supports at 12,500–12,000 and resistance at 13,200–13,500.