Piyasalara Analitik Bakış

Borsa İstanbul extended sharp losses as BIST100 fell 5.54% with banks (-6.38%) and industrials (-5.79%) under pressure; local yields spiked (2Y 41.17%, 10Y 35.40%) while 5Y CDS stood at 235.9. Housing price index rose 0.9% m/m and 23% y/y but fell 6.5% in real terms. Disinflation is slower than desired; the budget deficit is guided at 3.1% vs the 3.5% target and growth is expected around 3.3% this year, with no continuation of fuel price indexation next year. Valuations screen elevated: BIST100 trades 87–80% above 5Y average P/E (TL/$), Industrials show 235–243% P/E premia and a 53% TL-based FD/EBITDA premium.

Global risk tone is mixed: US equities eased while Europe rose. US retail sales accelerated; mortgage demand weakened amid higher rates. The Fed hiked 25 bp, signaled one more increase, and lifted 2026 growth and PCE forecasts. UK inflation re-accelerated. Near-term focus is on Eurozone inflation, US housing/claims, BoE decision, and Turkey’s data flow. Market expectations point to CPI at 29.61% end-2026, USD/TRY 51.57, current account deficits persisting, GDP growth at 3.0–3.9%, and the policy rate near 37% short term and 35.07% by year-end 2026.